Transcript: Why Crockett v. Talarico Is Down to the Wire in Texas
This is a lightly edited transcript of the February 26 edition of Right Now With Perry Bacon. You can watch the video here or by following this show on YouTube or Substack. Perry Bacon: So let’s start with the Democratic race, which is probably of more interest to our audience. Jasmine Crockett, congresswoman, very famous. James Talarico, state representative, who has become somebody who a lot of my friends have seen videos of. He’s become sort of a popular figure as well. So I guess my first question is: you told me in September or October, Jasmine Crockett is going to run against somebody. I would have said, oh, she’s going to have a big advantage because she’s like a famous person and so well known, and nobody knows who a state representative is. So how did he get to the point where this race is either tied or very close, or maybe he’s even leading? How did he do this?Justin Miller: Yeah. I’ve been seeing Talarico as a bit of a rising star in the State House. He’s been on the front lines of fighting back against extremist Republican policy in the legislature. And I think people have been seeing him, over the past couple of years, as a likely candidate for higher office — whether it was Senate or I think a lot of people were thinking originally, governor. For a time, the only other declared candidate was Colin Allred. And then there was the disorganized Democratic Party, any chances of an organized slate, and obviously Crockett got in very late into the race. And I think that overlaid a lot of the dynamics of the race.Bacon: She entered in November or December?Miller: Right before the filing deadline — I think it was very early December. She had been saying throughout November, and maybe even back into October, that she was seriously considering running for U.S. Senate. There were some public polls showing that she had obviously the highest name recognition of any candidate, including against Beto O’Rourke. That, combined with the redistricting, which reoriented a lot of the political lines up in Dallas County, she said gave the basis for her considering to run for U.S. Senate. So yeah, it was definitely a very late entry.Bacon: So he had a three- or four-month head start — that’s part of what he did, right? He was running before she started running. That’s a big part of the story here, right?Miller: Yeah, he had at least a couple of months’ head start, and of course he was starting with much lower name recognition. And honestly, I think his own campaign got off to a slower start than I would have thought and struggled to gain traction right out of the gate. And then, when Crockett entered, he reconsidered his strategy and everything, and I think he was caught on his back foot. But now you see in the past several weeks, I think his campaign has hit its stride. It’s been aided a lot by a ton of national media attention, going on talk shows and everything. So yeah, it’s been a definitely abnormal primary, but also a very hotly contested one that we haven’t seen in quite a while.Bacon: So as a person following this nationally, what I’ve seen is: he seems to be, one, very articulate, and two, he’s talked about being religious and that drawing on and having a moral politics. He’s not the only religious Democrat — Raphael Warnock, and there are plenty of Black Democrats who are very religious, particularly. But Joe Biden was religious, Nancy Pelosi as well. But I think the national story is there’s this charismatic young guy who’s very religious. That’s unusual. Is that the story in Texas? What’s drawing people to him among the actual voters who might vote for him?Miller: Yes, that’s definitely become like the core part of his identity. Going back to the legislature, a lot of his most viral moments on the Texas House floor have come from him using his command of and beliefs in Christianity and his studies as a seminarian to turn scripture back against Republicans as they’re trying to push Christian nationalist-type policies in schools and in state government and all of that. I think, yes, it’s framed as this unique thing — a Democrat who’s a Christian is somehow this completely unique thing, which obviously, as you said, it isn’t. I think his use of his religion, and quoting scripture and everything, to advance a progressive platform intrigues a lot of Democratic voters. Especially, maybe, non-Christian voters who see in this something they imagine will be convincing to knowable voters in the middle, and even staunch Republicans. That’s obviously a pretty big proposition and one that hasn’t been tested yet so far.Bacon: So I’ll be blunt: I’m often leery of electability arguments in a primary, because I think that often plays against women and people of color. And Jasmine’s a Black woman. So I want to talk about this in a subtle way. One, is he benefiting from the perception that he’s more “electable” than she is? And two, is that grounded in things beyond race and gender? Because I think it could be here. Talk about that.Miller: Yeah, I think he absolutely is benefiting from this inherent assumption that a white guy who speaks well and has viral moments and talks about religion in an eloquent and compelling way is automatically going to lend itself to electability in a general election in Texas. And I think there is absolutely a lot of that dynamic playing into this. People are self-hedging. They might support Jasmine Crockett and say they would love to vote for her. But in the end, they really think Talarico is more electable. Again, this is Texas. Democrats don’t know what’s electable. We’ve time and time again thought we’ve had various answers, and everything has come up short. And I think Talarico so far — he’s a progressive from Austin, which, there are plenty of things that Republicans will go after him for in a general election.Bacon: But we should note Crockett is not Kamala Harris. Compare — Kamala Harris is bland in a certain way, and Crockett has leaned into being resistance and strong, with viral moments and calling Republicans racist and things like that. She’s not the average politician, Black or woman.Miller: Definitely not a wallflower. She’s not going to back off her convictions to try to appeal to some conception of a moderate middle, or walk on eggshells for the sake of some notion of electability. And I think that is what people see as the most compelling thing about her among Democratic voters. And she’s made this point in the home stretch: Talarico is trying to make faith a central component of the race. Crockett very much says this is a moment where Democrats want fighters. They don’t want somebody who’s trying to play to some Trump crossover voters or something like that.Bacon: Do they have any real public policy differences? This is not really a left-versus-center race, right? Not the same way as Bernie versus Biden. This doesn’t play into that. Or Ossoff versus Warnock either. This is not that race, right?Miller: Yeah, no. The ideological attachments have gotten all jumbled. I think there are ways that Talarico is trying to frame himself as more of a moderate, and some people are casting Crockett as too left-wing. When in reality I think Talarico is very progressive and has a progressive track record. Crockett in some ways is a bit more moderate — she also has a staunch liberal voting record. But yeah, there really isn’t any core policy differences fueling this race in any significant way, as far as I can tell. Some votes have been raised, but of course Talarico hasn’t been in Congress and hasn’t had to take any votes on that. But really, yeah, this is definitely more of a race about style and the character of these candidates and how they can appeal to the electorate — not necessarily anything about policy at this point.Bacon: Let’s jump to the Republican race, where Attorney General Ken Paxton is running in a primary against the incumbent Senator John Cornyn. I guess my obvious question would be: I covered Washington a long time, and John Cornyn seemed pretty conservative to me. Why is there a primary? He’s pro-Trump. From a conservative perspective, what’s the problem with John Cornyn?Miller: Big bad John. Yeah, he’s been around for 20 years. Twenty-plus years. He was first elected back in 2002. And I think part of it is that long-time incumbency, but also part of it is the base — the hardcore right base of the Republican Party has been angry with Cornyn over some of his votes, particularly over a very modest, bipartisan gun control reform bill that he helped pass a couple of years ago in the wake of the Uvalde shooting. And he got booed on stage at the state Republican Convention in the wake of that. And they see him, despite him being very staunchly in line with the Trump agenda, as not a true believer. Part of the big-business wing, the Mitch McConnell wing.Bacon: I was going to say that he comes off in persona as a Mitch McConnell Republican — is that the subtext, that big business thing?Miller: Yes. And he’s also somebody who has bear-hugged Trump as a matter of political necessity. And I think in a lot of ways he is firmly committed to a lot of Trump’s agenda. But going back a couple of years, I think he was saying Trump should retire to Mar-a-Lago and not run for president. And I think that has stuck with him. He’s just seen as not a classic MAGA-er.Bacon: Paxton has had all these scandals. He was impeached at some point. He got charged with securities fraud. Why has none of it stuck? He seems to be corrupt, is what it looks like to me. He seems Trump-like in that way. Maybe that explains it. But he seems corrupt. How has none of this stuff stuck to him? He’s getting divorced, there are some marriage issues — why does nothing stick to him?Miller: It’s a very good question. Partly I think there is a Trump effect to it all. At a certain point, all of the scandals in their cumulative effect have just been dismissed as part of a conspiracy to take him out for being too much of a MAGA warrior. He’s being taken out by a conspiracy of RINOs and liberal Democrats in Texas. But yeah, I think the impeachment trial — where he was on trial for allegations of corruption, bribery, and abuse of office — that was a huge moment in Texas politics. And I think a lot of people really did believe at the time that there were a lot of Republicans in the Texas House who voted to impeach him, and then it went to the much more conservative Texas Senate where he was ultimately acquitted. There was an immense amount of political pressure from grassroots conservatives in Texas on senators to vote to acquit across the board. So it was much more of a political trial than any sort of legal trial. And obviously he’s benefited from the Trump administration taking over and closing the DOJ investigations that had been ongoing for years into his affairs. And then yeah, there are obviously the affairs that he’s had, and he’s now getting divorced wife Angela Paxton, who’s also a state senator. I don’t have the answer to exactly why he’s been able to survive. But he is very much seen as a rock-solid MAGA warrior who takes the hundred-percent approach.Bacon: Okay, so the primary is on Tuesday. You have to get 50 percent, right? Otherwise there’s a runoff. When would the runoff be?Miller: End of May. So it creates this painfully long interim period from early March to end of May where there are runoff campaigns. And basically the conventional wisdom in Texas is that if you’re an incumbent and you’re forced into a runoff, your chances of survival are next to nothing. There are exceptions to that rule, including Ken Paxton himself, who back in 2022 was primaried by several Republican challengers when he was in the midst of all his scandals, and got forced into a runoff against George P. Bush — and ended up prevailing in that race. But I think Cornyn getting forced into a runoff is the most likely result heading into Tuesday. I don’t, given it’s a three-way race, foresee any way it doesn’t go to a runoff.Bacon: I think that one is pretty clearly going to a runoff between Cornyn and Paxton. There’s a third candidate running below the two of them. But you think neither one of them gets to 50 percent? We have a runoff there in which Paxton is probably the favorite. Is that what you’re getting at?Miller: I think so, yeah. I think that’s the most likely scenario, and that’s when it’s going to get real. The gloves are going to come off far more than they already have.Bacon: And the president, I don’t think, has endorsed anybody. But the fact that he’s not endorsed the incumbent is a hint. Do we think he’ll endorse Paxton if he endorses anyone? Is that what you think? I’m just curious.Miller: It’s hard to read. I think both Paxton and Cornyn have lobbied him very hard throughout the course of the campaign and before, to try to secure his endorsement, and he’s withheld it. I think that probably does more harm to Cornyn, just by virtue of his association with Trump. And Trump is going to be in Texas tomorrow. I don’t think he’s going to make any sort of surprise endorsement, but yeah, it’s definitely been an interesting factor. Trump doesn’t necessarily stay on the sidelines very frequently in high-profile races like this.Bacon: And who knows what he’ll say on stage, even if he doesn’t endorse someone in the most formal sense. In the other primary, it’s really two candidates. So me reading the polls — and I used to work at FiveThirtyEight, so I study this stuff somewhat carefully — I get the sense my guess would be Talarico wins on Tuesday. That’s what it looks like, but it’s close, so you would just say too close to call, basically. But that’s what I’m expecting. What’s your sense of it?Miller: Yeah, there have been polls that have shown Crockett —Bacon: Both candidates leading in different polls, right?Miller: Yeah. A recent one from the University of Texas had Crockett up by 12 points. I think — I would be very surprised if it’s not a blowout probably —Bacon: He’s not going to win a blowout probably.Miller: Yeah, I think it’s going to be very close. I think Talarico has the wind at his back right now. And Crockett — I think she started the race banking on her high name ID and all of that, and now is in the home stretch really trying to push across the finish line. But yeah, I think it’s going to be very close. I don’t want to make any prediction.Bacon: That’s fine. Yeah, I understand that. I always want to get a sense of things from you because you’re there. And so moving to the — I think the reason a lot of our audience, which is left of center obviously, is going to be interested in this, is the thought that Paxton wins, Talarico wins, and looking farther ahead, maybe Democrats could get the white whale and win Texas. I will believe it when I see it and not a moment before then. Where do you stand? I understand that you might have the best possible Democrat and the worst possible Republican, but still. Do you think we should be covering the Texas Senate race in terms of electability — in the sense of who’s going to win? Do you think this race would be worth covering if it’s Talarico versus Paxton? Because I still think Texas is a steal.Miller: I think the instinct of “I’ll believe it when I see it” is the right one. I think that’s not going to prevent there from being, as always in Texas, a huge bunch of hype around: is this the time that Texas turns blue? I do think Paxton is the most beatable of the Republican candidates, but even with the most ideal circumstances and the weakest possible opponent, it’s still such an outside chance in Texas. I think even with a big blue wave and all of that, it’s still a firmly Republican state.Bacon: Yeah. 2018 was this huge Democratic wave year, like this one. And Beto did really well, hustled everywhere, and I think lost by 4 percent to Ted Cruz, who is not an overly great politician. So I think that’s maybe a high-water mark in a certain sense.Miller: Yeah. I think it was about two and a half or 3 percent.Bacon: Okay, closer than I thought. And that was with Beto.Miller: Historic turnout among the Democratic base. I think it’s fair to say that as of now, that still remains the high-water mark.Bacon: There are a bunch of primaries going on in Texas for the House and other races, and the redistricting has changed a lot — so I’m not going to get into that too much. The one thing I do want to ask about is: I covered Congress a long time, so I just know Al Green, and I have liked the fact that he stood up and was for impeachment in the early moments, before the party got there. So it looks like he might lose on Tuesday. Can you talk about that primary and why?Miller: Yeah. So that is one of the casualties of the gerrymandering war in Texas, where they redrew his district in Houston to be a much more conservative, exurban seat. And then reoriented the 18th Congressional District, which was vacant for nearly a year after Congressman Sylvester Turner died just a couple of months into his term. Christian Menefee — he was the Harris County attorney — just won the special election runoff to hold that seat under its current boundaries. And now we’re pivoting to the primary where Al Green decided to run in this seat, which is now the historically Black congressional district in Houston. And so he decided to run in the 18th against Menefee. And yeah, I think Menefee is the front-runner at this point. There are a lot of factors. I think Al Green is still very well liked and popular, but there’s also an undeniable age factor.Bacon: He is old. How old is he? He’s facing this age thing — is he in his eighties?Miller: In his late seventies. I should know this. And then Menefee is in his thirties. And the 18th Congressional was held by Sheila Jackson Lee for so long, and then she passed away while in office and was replaced by Sylvester Turner, also in his seventies. I think there’s anxiety about the generational dynamics.Bacon: So I looked it up. Al Green is 79 and turning 80 on April 12th. So he’s really in that club of people the party wants to move on from. He’s unusual in that I think a lot of people feel like the older members are not fighters enough. And he’s definitely a fighting old person — no other way to say that.Miller: Yeah, he is not wallpaper, like some of the older members who are representing their districts and nowhere to be found. He is definitely at the forefront. So I think that could definitely benefit him.Bacon: All right, good. Justin Miller, this was a great conversation. Thanks for joining us. Tuesday is going to be very interesting and I hope you come back to talk to us about it.Miller: Will do. Appreciate it.Bacon: Good to see you. Bye-bye.